The Correlation Between the Political Battleground and Property Values

What do the country’s swing states in the U.S. Presidential election have in common? It’s not location. There’s a state in the southwest, a couple in the south, one in the northeast, a midwestern state, and a mid-Atlantic state. It’s not taxable base, average income, or happiness stats. It’s not even the job rate that links them all. So what is it? The answer might surprise you.

What is a Swing State or a Political Battleground?

States that are deemed a swing state or a political battleground by the media are expected to have a key effect on the Presidential election results. While some states are often considered swing states, some change with the year. For this campaign season it’s believed that the states include:

• Arizona
• Florida
• Georgia
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania

What Do These States Have in Common?

All of these states have seen home values rise on average 30% since 2011. According to a report from Trulia, states that favor Republicans have risen 18% while property value in states that have historically favored Democrats have risen 29%. The largest increases in home value were also some of the hardest hit in the real estate bubble including Arizona and Florida, which rose 53% and 51% respectively.  This is a sort of return to normalcy for states that faced an over-inflated real estate market. They fell hard and so their recovery looks more dramatic than more stable markets like Ohio.

What Does a Presidential Election Have to Do with the Real Estate Market?

According to the report from Trulia, 47% of Democrats believe housing prices would rise under Trump (33% of Republicans agreed) as opposed to 24% (38% of Republicans) who said the same about Clinton. Whether higher housing prices is a good thing or not depends on whether you are buying or selling at the time.

A poll back in May conducted by real estate firm Redfin found that 27 percent of those polled believed this divisive campaign and election will end up hurting the housing market. It’s important to note that this poll skewed young, with most of the demographic surveyed being first-time home buyers and Millennials. It should be no surprise that the poll indicated the former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders would be best for the housing market (26.5% believed so). However, 28% believed the market would be best served by none of those running (at the time of the poll that was Trump, Clinton, and Sanders).

What will the election mean for the housing market? We’ll have to wait and see but the one thing we can be sure of is that those swing states have seen some healthy recent growth and we hope the pattern continues.

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